Zhao Tongyang said that now they can finally calculate the ROI of humanoid robots. In some sorting scenarios, robot efficiency and accuracy approach human levels, and some projects can already calculate investment returns. On the supply side, costs are dropping rapidly: ball screw prices have fallen from 10,000-20,000 yuan three years ago to 1,000-2,000 yuan, and reducer prices have generally halved.
Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for China's humanoid robot shipments: from 28,000 units in 2026 to 50,000 units, with 446,000 units expected by 2030, corresponding to a 106% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030. But Zhao Tongyang believes the industry has not yet exploded; only when a company produces hundreds of thousands or millions of units annually can it be considered a boom, and the current scale is still in the tens of thousands.
Zhongqing invests 80%-90% of resources in commercial, industrial, and home scenarios, with combat competitions accounting for only 10%. In August, the T800 entered Luxshare Precision's Suzhou factory. The Shenzhen base covers about 12,000 square meters, with a takt time of one unit every 15 minutes and 79 quality checks; in July, the first batch of T800 units rolled off the Zhengzhou base. Zhao Tongyang said the cost of general-purpose humanoid robots for deployable scenarios has been controlled to the hundred-thousand-yuan level, but due to lack of mass production, there is still room for further reduction.