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The Batch (Andrew Ng)
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Issue 352

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AI Won't Cause Job Losses; It Will Create More Jobs

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Despite rapid AI advancements, historical data and current trends suggest AI won't trigger mass unemployment but may instead boost the job market.

  • AI won't cause mass unemployment; historical data shows tech changes typically create more jobs.
  • US unemployment remains healthy at 4.3%, and software engineer hiring is still strong.
  • AI companies have incentives to exaggerate AI's ability to replace labor to justify higher pricing.
  • Companies tend to blame layoffs on AI rather than on over-hiring during the pandemic.
  • Society has repeatedly made poor decisions due to exaggerated tech risks, like fears of nuclear power and fat.
  • AI will create many new AI engineering jobs and change skill requirements for non-AI roles.
Open section navigationAI Won't Cause Job Losses: Historical and Data Rebuttal

AI Won't Cause Job Losses: Historical and Data Rebuttal

In The Batch issue 352, Andrew Ng clearly states that AI will not cause a wave of unemployment. He notes that although AI tools have the greatest impact on software engineering, hiring for software engineers remains strong, and the US unemployment rate stays at a healthy 4.3%.

Ng argues that AI, like previous technologies, will change job content, but net job creation far exceeds job destruction. He predicts an 'AI jobapalooza'—AI will create more high-quality AI engineering roles and change skill requirements for non-AI positions.

Analysis of Motives Behind Exaggerating AI Job Loss Risks

Ng analyzes why AI job loss theories are popular: frontier AI labs have incentives to exaggerate AI capabilities to make the technology seem more valuable; AI companies can charge higher fees by anchoring to employee salaries rather than traditional SaaS prices; and companies tend to attribute layoffs to AI to cover up over-hiring during the pandemic.

These motives lead to overhyped AI job loss narratives, but actual data does not support this view.

History of Society's Overreaction to Technological Risks

Ng points out that society has repeatedly made poor decisions due to exaggerated risks, such as fear of nuclear plant safety leading to underinvestment in nuclear energy, concerns about the 'population bomb' leading to strict population policies, and worries about dietary fat leading to promotion of unhealthy high-sugar diets.

He believes that AI job loss theories may also gradually lose influence, like these historical cases.

Future Outlook for AI Employment

Ng predicts that AI will bring more job opportunities, not fewer. AI engineering jobs will differ from traditional software engineering, and many positions will appear at non-traditional large employers. He encourages more people to acquire AI skills to prepare for diverse future employment.

Credibility boundary

This article is based on Andrew Ng's views in The Batch issue 352. Ng is a well-known expert in AI, and his views are informative, but some content (e.g., analysis of AI company motives) is inferential.

Insight takeaway

AI will not cause mass unemployment; instead, it may create more job opportunities. Society should avoid exaggerating AI risks and focus on helping people adapt to skill changes.

Sources for this version

  1. Issue 352The Batch (Andrew Ng)

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The Batch (Andrew Ng)

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