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Reinforcement Learning Pioneer Sutton Says Synthetic Data Is a Huge Mistake, LLMs Only Cover a Quarter of Intelligence

In a recent interview on Sequoia Capital's podcast Training Data, Rich Sutton, a pioneer of reinforcement learning, criticized synthetic data as a huge mistake and argued that large language models only achieve a quarter of intelligence. He also announced the founding of Oak Lab to advance continual learning.

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Sutton Interview: Synthetic Data Is a Huge Mistake, Continual Learning Is the Next Stop for Intelligence

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Reinforcement learning pioneer Rich Sutton said on a Sequoia Capital podcast that synthetic data is a huge mistake and that large models have only achieved a quarter of intelligence. Through his new company, Oak Lab, he is betting on continual learning to let AI update its knowledge in real time after deployment.

  • Sutton believes that a model that stops changing after deployment is not a complete intelligent system; large models mainly address language ability, covering only part of intelligence.
  • Sutton calls synthetic data a 'huge mistake,' arguing that it expands data scale without changing AI's fundamental reliance on external data producers.
  • Research by Khurram Javed et al. published in Nature shows that standard deep learning models gradually lose the ability to absorb new knowledge when learning tasks sequentially, a phenomenon known as 'plasticity loss.'
Open section navigationLimitations of Static Models: Knowledge Is Not Learning

Limitations of Static Models: Knowledge Is Not Learning

In an interview on the Sequoia Capital podcast 'Training Data' on August 18, Sutton pointed out that the capabilities of current large models are mostly formed before deployment, with parameters essentially fixed. Even if they encounter vast amounts of new information daily, they do not convert it into long-term abilities like humans do. He argues that this static paradigm confuses the boundary between knowledge and learning.

Sutton emphasized that context only temporarily changes the information the model can currently see; the model's internal knowledge structure is not updated, and once the conversation ends or the context window is cleared, the information may disappear. Although the product may give the impression of 'learning,' if the model weights do not change, it is merely using current information for reasoning without forming new long-term knowledge.

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Credibility boundary

This article is primarily based on an interview on the Sequoia Capital podcast 'Training Data,' reported by DeepTech. The views of Sutton and Khurram Javed are directly quoted, but some technical details (such as the 'continual backpropagation' algorithm) come from the team's statements and have not been independently verified. Oak Lab's goals and Moore's law estimates are company statements or inferences and should be treated with caution.

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